Monero’s Q4 pattern hints at $400–$420 support retest before next XMR rally

Monero’s price climbed about 7%, moving from $432 to above $460 during the Q4 2025 Santa rally, while Bitcoin’s eased dominance allowed altcoins a relief move. Analysts noted that XMR’s thin liquidity, low volumes and an impending MACD Death Cross could drag the token back toward the $400–$420 support area and the 50-day Moving Average, where previous bounces in Q4 had started. If this support holds, they anticipate the next upside leg could target around $470, but a sustained breakdown below the 50-day MA would invalidate this bullish setup.