Markets Bet on No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 as Kevin Warsh Takes Over With 3.8% CPI

Traders are increasingly pricing a full-year Fed hold in 2026, with CME FedWatch showing 95%–98% odds of no change at upcoming meetings. Ahead of the June 17 FOMC decision, Kalshi and Polymarket activity totals more than $42M combined in volume favoring an unchanged 3.50%–3.75% target range. Elevated inflation signals including April CPI near 3.8% y/y and unemployment around 4.3%–4.4% are cited as key constraints on easing.