January 2026 partial U.S. shutdown highlights unclear rules in Polymarket and Kalshi contracts

On January 31, 2026, a partial U.S. government shutdown extending into the weekend raised questions about how prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi define such events. Contracts tied to shutdown outcomes showed high implied probabilities, yet their resolution rules hinge on specific U.S. Office of Personnel Management notices. Traders flagged ambiguous wording around what counts as a shutdown and how many days it would last, especially with different time-based conditions.