Coinbase warns January 1, 2026 U.S. tax rules may move bettors to prediction markets

Coinbase argues that U.S. tax changes taking effect on January 1, 2026 could push bettors away from casinos and sportsbooks toward prediction markets. The law limits gambling loss deductions to 90% of losses against 100% of winnings, while some prediction-market contracts receive Section 1256 treatment that allows full netting and loss carryforwards.