Bitcoin cycle analysis points to potential bear market bottom near $49,000 by early 2026

Bitcoin's cyclical market structure remains intact despite recurring claims of fundamental change, with analysis of miner economics, fee revenue, and institutional flows pointing to a potential bear market bottom near $49,000 in early 2026. The framework examines security budget dynamics, hashrate elasticity from miner diversification into AI hosting, and ETF flow patterns to assess three scenarios for the next downturn. Key indicators include sustained hashprice below $40 per petahash daily, fee contributions dropping below 10% of miner revenue, and persistent negative ETF flows.