Wall Street Pushes First Fed Rate-Cut Calls Out to 2026–2027

A growing number of major Wall Street banks and macro research firms are pushing back their expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. After April’s nonfarm payrolls report, several forecasters scrapped earlier easing timelines or shifted projected cuts further into the future. Roughly half of the institutions tracked now anticipate no rate cuts at all in 2026. Market watchers say the "no cut" camp could expand if incoming data continue to show persistent inflation and a resilient labor market—conditions that reinforce pressure on the Fed to keep policy restrictive. According to a forecast table dated May 8, 2026, institutions’ projections for the first Fed rate cut are: - Bank of America — July 2027 - Barclays — March 2027 - BNPP — No change for an indefinite period - Citigroup — September 2026 - Deutsche Bank — No change for an indefinite period - Goldman Sachs — September 2026 - HSBC — No change for an indefinite period - Jefferies — September 2026 - JP Morgan — No change for an indefinite period - Morgan Stanley — January 2027 - MPA Macro — No change for an indefinite period - MUFG — July 2026 - Nomura — September 2026 - Oxford Economics — December 2026 - RBC — No change for an indefinite period - TD Securities — September 2026 - UBS — December 2026 - Wells Fargo — September 2026 Related News: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Experience Declines on the Same Day of the Week for the 13th Consecutive Week *This is not investment advice. Continue Reading: Major Banks Have Updated Their Forecasts on When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates