Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $635M in a Day as BTC Stalls Around $80,000

One of the main forces credited with bitcoin's push above $80,000 is showing signs of fading as U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs swing into withdrawals. After attracting $3.29 billion across March and April, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs saw investors pull $635 million on Wednesday—the largest single-day net outflow since Jan. 29, according to SoSoValue. The move extends a broader reversal: over the last five trading days, the group has recorded $1.26 billion in net outflows. Total net inflows since the products launched in January 2024 have slipped to $58.5 billion from $59.76 billion a week earlier. Bitcoin's rally has also lost momentum. The advance from roughly $65,000 to above $80,000 has stalled since last Wednesday, with the move running into resistance near the 200-day simple moving average just above $82,000. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen more than 2% to $79,400. Analysts pointed to renewed U.S. inflation concerns as a drag on crypto, even as equities largely shrugged off the macro backdrop. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both set fresh highs on Wednesday. The $635 million redemption is difficult for bulls to dismiss, given that the strong inflows in March and April were widely viewed as a key bullish catalyst and inflation risks are resurfacing. "A persistently hot CPI, an incoming Fed under Warsh that markets read as more hawkish, or another oil shock can compress bitcoin even with positive net flows. From our perspective, the more useful question is not whether the markup leg continues, but whether macro conditions stay loose enough for the flows to do their work," said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. Tesseract has over $500 in assets under management. At the same time, the link between ETF flows and bitcoin's price has weakened. A correlation study shows the 90-day rolling Pearson coefficient between bitcoin's daily percentage return and the daily percentage change in cumulative net ETF inflows is currently 0.16—statistically indistinguishable from zero—down from a peak of 0.68 in February. In practical terms, daily ETF flow direction has offered limited insight into BTC's day-to-day moves. Still, outsized redemptions like Wednesday's remain a meaningful signal for the market.