UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026

The United Arab Emirates said on April 28, 2026, via state news agency WAM, that it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective May 1. The UAE has been part of the group for nearly 60 years and currently produces about 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 12% of OPEC output, ranking third behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The departure will cut OPEC membership to 11 from 12 and reduce the cartel's share of global crude supply to about 26% from roughly 30%. It is the largest member exit OPEC has faced in recent years. A nearly six-decade relationship OPEC was founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to coordinate production and protect oil-exporting nations' interests. Abu Dhabi joined in 1967 as an independent entity, and the UAE retained that seat after the federation was formed four years later. Over subsequent decades, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) expanded rapidly. The UAE's proven reserves are now about 113 billion barrels, sixth-largest globally, around 6% of world totals. Output in the 2020s has been broadly stable near 3.6 million bpd, with a peak near 4.12 million bpd in 2022. ADNOC is pursuing a capacity target of 5 million bpd by 2027, backed by more than $150 billion in cumulative investment. Quota limits versus rising capacity OPEC's quota system assigns production ceilings based on capacity, historical output and market expectations. While designed to stabilize markets during high-price periods, it can cap revenue for members expanding capacity quickly. The UAE has long argued that its ceiling understates its capacity. Its latest quota is about 3.41 million bpd, while production has approached 4.85 million bpd, implying a gap of roughly 1.4 to 2.0 million bpd. At $70–$80 a barrel, that constrained volume equates to an estimated $46 billion to $58 billion in foregone annual revenue. Tensions flared in 2021 as post-pandemic demand recovered and the group debated whether to maintain cuts. The UAE rejected its baseline and sought to raise it from 3.2 million to 3.8 million bpd. After two weeks of deadlock, Saudi Arabia ultimately agreed to lift the UAE quota to 3.65 million bpd. In 2024, operational overproduction became routine, with output often exceeding the quota by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. Exits are not new, but the UAE is different OPEC has seen members come and go: Indonesia left and rejoined before exiting again in 2016; Ecuador withdrew in 2019; Qatar left in 2019 after shifting focus toward natural gas; Angola exited in 2024, citing dissatisfaction with quota allocations. The UAE's scale is far larger. Qatar produced about 600,000 bpd when it left; Angola roughly 1.1 million bpd. The UAE's nearly 3.6 million bpd is several times the combined output of prior high-profile leavers. Its more diversified economy also makes it less reliant on high oil prices for fiscal balance, strengthening the incentive to prioritize volumes. Hormuz disruption: catalyst, not the root cause On Feb. 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the conflict spread across the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global crude and LNG shipments, has effectively been shut amid the escalation. UAE exports were hit quickly. An overland bypass pipeline exists, but its maximum capacity of about 1.8 million bpd cannot offset the loss of seaborne flows. In March 2026, UAE crude output fell to roughly 1.9–2.34 million bpd, down about 35%–47% from the prewar level of 3.6 million bpd. Saudi Arabia's decline over the same period was about 23%, while Iran's production fell only around 6%. International Energy Agency data show OPEC+'s share of global oil production slid to about 44% in March from roughly 48% in February, with further declines expected in April and another step down in May as the UAE formally exits. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said the decision followed a broad review of the country's oil policy and its current and future capacity, adding that the policy work predated the current geopolitical tensions. What the exit means for OPEC's leverage The practical impact hinges on spare capacity: production that can be brought online quickly to cushion supply shocks. Global effective spare capacity is estimated at about 4–5 million bpd, much of it concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Once outside OPEC, the UAE's spare capacity would no longer be constrained by group quotas or collective decision-making. The UAE is the only OPEC member besides Saudi Arabia with substantial spare capacity; its departure reduces OPEC's ability to manage supply, especially as non-OPEC production continues to rise. The United States now produces more than 13 million bpd, above Saudi Arabia's roughly 9 million bpd, a shift that has steadily weakened OPEC's bargaining power. Saudi Arabia would become the dominant remaining holder of large spare capacity inside OPEC, increasing its burden in market management while shrinking the pool of supportive capacity. Oil market reaction Brent crude futures briefly dipped on the announcement but still ended up about 2% from the prior close, trading above $111 a barrel. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked and the UAE unable to lift exports meaningfully in the near term, leaving OPEC has little immediate effect on physical supply. Prices remain driven primarily by geopolitical risk, more than 50% above prewar levels seen in February 2026. Over the medium to long term, once Hormuz reopens, expectations that the UAE can raise production independently could weigh on prices. Futures markets have reacted cautiously to those longer-dated implications. If the UAE reaches its 5 million bpd capacity goal and lifts output materially, incremental supply could amount to about 1%–2% of global demand—enough to influence prices during periods of balanced supply and demand. UAE's post-exit production path Outside OPEC, the UAE will be able to set output without quota constraints. The pace will depend on the reopening of Hormuz, ADNOC's expansion progress and demand conditions in major consuming markets. ADNOC's upstream build-out has lifted recoverable capacity close to 4.85 million bpd. The 5 million bpd target for 2027 has been in place for years; the strategic change is the ability to release that capacity to the market without cartel limits. The UAE also relies on the Habshan pipeline to Fujairah, which bypasses Hormuz and reaches the Gulf of Oman. Its maximum throughput is about 1.5–1.8 million bpd. Without normal maritime passage, it remains the UAE's main export outlet but cannot support full-scale output increases. A World Bank report said the oil supply loss linked to the Iran conflict is the largest on record, projecting global energy prices to rise by about a quarter this year. It estimates it could take six months for the strait to return to prewar operating conditions, a window that will shape how quickly the UAE recalibrates and ramps production.