Geopolitical risk fuels $90.5M in leveraged BTC and ETH longs
CoinDesk reports:
## Market Overview
From April 27 to May 3, options market data implied a 0.1% chance that bitcoin would reach $94,000. It also suggested a 99.8% probability that BTC would finish above $68,000 on May 3. Ethereum markets on April 30 were not impacted by this development and have since been settled.
## Key Points
- Wallet 0x049b's sizable leveraged long positions in bitcoin and ether signal strong conviction in further upside.
- Geopolitical tensions—including the U.S.–Iran conflict—continue to drive elevated volatility despite the risk-on leverage.
- Traders still broadly expect bitcoin to hold above $68,000 into May 3, underscoring near-term market resilience.
## Article Body
Wallet 0x049b opened large leveraged long positions, purchasing $45.82 million in bitcoin and $44.67 million in ether using 20x leverage. The trades come as tensions among the United States, Israel and Iran intensify, adding to volatility across global markets.
Conflict risks near the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to oil supply concerns and pushed some demand toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Even so, bitcoin and ether have shown relative resilience, rebounding faster than equities. In early May, bitcoin held above $68,000, while ether hovered near $2,260.
## Market Analysis
The 0x049b leveraged long reflects confidence that bitcoin can hold its current range or move higher. The positioning broadly aligns with the market's base case of BTC remaining above $68,000 ahead of May 3. The overall market impact is viewed as moderate, with geopolitical risk still a dominant driver. Traders appear to be weighing upside potential against the downside risks tied to the current backdrop.
## Viewing Guide
Market participants will be watching developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict closely, as either de-escalation or escalation could quickly shift volatility. U.S. inflation data and central-bank communications remain key macro catalysts. Any sharp moves in BTC or ETH—or changes in sentiment triggered by new geopolitical or economic headlines—will be important to track in the days ahead.
