Bitcoin ETF inflows hit longest run since September; on-chain and derivatives data flag growing imbalance
CoinDesk reports that spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged their longest stretch of net inflows since September, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) delivering its strongest weekly intake in six months. On-chain and derivatives indicators, though, suggest the advance may be increasingly leverage-driven.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted nine straight trading sessions of inflows through April 24, adding $14.45 million on the day and lifting cumulative net inflows to about $2.1 billion. SoSoValue data shows the nine-day run is the longest since September 2025.
Weekly figures point to sustained institutional demand. For the week ending April 24, inflows totaled $823.7 million, following $996.4 million and $786.3 million in the prior two weeks. IBIT led with $983 million for the week, its highest in six months.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju cautioned that the rally lacks a key ingredient: spot demand recovery on-chain. He said Bitcoin is being driven by the futures market, with open interest rising while "apparent demand" on-chain remains net negative even after ETF inflows and purchases by Michael Saylor.
CEX.IO Chief Analyst Ilya Otichenko echoed the caution, arguing recent price gains show signs of short covering. He noted open interest has risen alongside price, implying leverage has contributed to the move and that short squeezes, rather than pure spot buying, may be playing a meaningful role.
Liquidation data reflects that imbalance. Since April 13, short liquidations have totaled about $2.8 billion versus $1.8 billion in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass, indicating bearish traders were caught off guard. Otichenko added that continued growth in short positioning could leave room for additional upside if more shorts are forced to cover, but said a durable rally would require stronger spot demand, higher on-chain activity and broader participation. Without that, a pullback risk remains.
Ju also highlighted a gap between ETF absorption and exchange spot buying, suggesting futures traders may be leaning on leverage rather than outright accumulation. Otichenko said part of the ETF demand may stem from cash-and-carry strategies, where institutions buy IBIT shares while shorting CME Bitcoin futures to capture the spread. Because the trade is market-neutral, he argued ETF inflows should not automatically be treated as a uniformly bullish signal.
Other indicators point to caution. Funding rates are negative, implying traders are paying to maintain short exposure. Options market 25-delta skew is also negative, around 2% to 5%, signaling investors are paying up for downside protection. Otichenko said funding rates are near historic lows while long-term holder accumulation is at an all-time high, adding that "one of these two groups is likely to make a major mistake" and that once the tension breaks, price action can become "swift and decisive."
Bitcoin was trading near $77,800, down 0.2% over 24 hours and up about 3.5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. Predictive markets tracked by Decrypt's parent company Dastan put a 75% probability on Bitcoin first moving to $84,000. Short-term sentiment remained cautious, with users pricing a 42% chance that Bitcoin closes above $78,000 on Monday.
