Qatari LNG carrier transits the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in about 70 days

Jinshi Futures APP Weekly Futures Digest (exclusive compilation) Monday - U.S. Central Command said two U.S.-flagged merchant ships transited the Strait of Hormuz while a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer operated in the Gulf, adding that U.S. forces are assisting efforts to restore commercial shipping passage. (CCTV) - Senior U.S. officials denied reports that an Iranian missile struck a U.S. vessel. (AXIOS) - Iran's Fars News Agency claimed two Iranian missiles hit a U.S. warship near Iran's Jask Port after it allegedly ignored Iranian naval warnings; Iran said the ship turned back. The U.S. had not responded at the time of the report. (CCTV International Times) - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing said it plans to relaunch gold futures trading, with the exchange set to consult market participants to refine contract design and mechanisms and better align with Hong Kong's physical gold ecosystem. - India's April palm oil imports fell 27% m/m to 505,000 tons (a one-year low). Total edible oil imports rose 10.4% m/m to 1.3 million tons; soybean oil imports climbed 24% m/m to 355,000 tons (four-month high) and sunflower oil imports jumped 121% m/m to 435,000 tons (22-month high). - Indonesia nickel ore trades are increasingly referencing the new HPM benchmark pricing system, with smelter premiums averaging around HPM +7–8. A "fixed-price" model also emerged: 1.4% grade at $64 per wet metric ton; 1.5% grade at $69–71 per wet metric ton. Laterite ore prices weakened as several HPAL plants cut output; the top price for 1.3% grade slipped to about $35. Philippine nickel ore prices were temporarily stable due to subdued trading during China's May Day holiday, but downstream pressure kept the outlook bearish. (SMM) - Malaysia said it will begin producing B15 biodiesel (15% palm oil blend) starting in June to help lower diesel prices. - A survey of nine traders/planters/analysts projected Malaysia's palm oil inventories in April would edge down 0.76% from March to 2.25 million metric tons, the lowest since August 2025, marking a fourth straight monthly decline despite stronger output. Crude palm oil production was seen at 1.62 million metric tons (+18% m/m, highest since December), while exports were forecast at 1.35 million metric tons (-13% m/m). Implied domestic consumption was estimated at 335,260 metric tons. - Indonesia is discussing export duties and windfall profit taxes on coal and nickel to ease subsidy pressures in the national budget. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the proposals are being discussed with the energy ministry; he also said no export duties are currently levied, creating risks of underreported prices and smuggling, and that duties would strengthen customs' pre-export inspection authority. He added the government remains committed to downstream development, especially the nickel-based battery sector, and is considering incentives for industries using domestic raw materials. Tuesday - An Israeli source said Israel is coordinating with the U.S. and may be preparing another strike on Iran, including potential attacks on energy infrastructure and targeted killings of senior Iranian officials; plans were largely finalized before the early-April ceasefire. - The Washington Post reported 29 House Democrats urged Secretary of State Rubio to publicly disclose Israel's nuclear weapons program, arguing Congress has a responsibility to understand the Middle East nuclear balance and escalation risks. - Iran's border forces said they seized five vessels carrying about 200,000 liters of smuggled fuel in Khuzestan Province; authorities detained eight suspects and confiscated 130,000 liters of diesel from four vessels plus 68,000 liters from another ship. (CCTV News) - U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said two U.S. commercial vessels and a U.S. destroyer safely transited the Strait of Hormuz; he added that hundreds of other ships remain queued globally and argued Iran does not control the strait. Wednesday - Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are close to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and setting a framework for subsequent nuclear talks. Sources said the U.S. expected Iran's responses on key issues within 48 hours. Under parts of the draft, Iran would suspend uranium enrichment; the U.S. would lift sanctions and release billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets; and both sides would remove restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The draft would declare an end to hostilities and launch a 30-day negotiating window for a detailed agreement, potentially in Islamabad or Geneva; shipping restrictions and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that period, with the U.S. retaining the ability to reinstate the blockade or resume military action if talks fail. - China's Foreign Ministry said China and the U.S. are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) - Wang Yi met Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri in Beijing. China reaffirmed support for regional countries taking control of their own destiny, encouraged Iran and Gulf states to pursue dialogue, and backed a regional peace and security framework. China also reiterated support for Iran's pledge not to develop nuclear weapons while recognizing Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy. (Xinhua) - In a separate Xinhua report, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will safeguard sovereignty and dignity, seek a comprehensive and lasting solution through peaceful negotiations, and said the Strait of Hormuz reopening can be addressed promptly. - Indonesia's energy minister said Indonesia will discuss nickel cooperation with the Philippines during President Prabowo Subianto's visit, including potentially importing more Philippine ore when domestic supply is tight; no specific volumes would be agreed and any deals would be business-to-business. Indonesian Nickel Ore Association adviser Djoko Widajatno said both sides will also discuss technology development and information exchange. - U.S. ADP data showed private payrolls rose 109,000 in April, above expectations; March was revised down to 61,000. Economists surveyed expected April nonfarm payrolls to rise 62,000, private payrolls to rise 75,000, and unemployment to hold at 4.3%. - The New York Post cited Trump as saying it is still too early for face-to-face U.S.-Iran negotiations. He wrote on social media that if Iran honors what has been agreed, the "Epic Fury" operation would end and the Strait of Hormuz would open to all countries including Iran; otherwise bombing would resume. - Guinea said it reached an agreement with Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to resolve disputes tied to GAC's operational halt and Guinea's bauxite supply interruption to EGA, including disputes related to Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG). Terms include a one-time payment by Guinea to GAC; GAC transferring assets to Nimba Mining Company (NMC) to develop the Sangarédi bauxite project; and CBG renewing its bauxite supply deal with EGA on mutually beneficial terms. (Antaike) - Iran's parliamentary committee spokesperson Ibrahim Rezaei said Axios-linked U.S. statements were "a wish list" and warned Iran is ready to "open fire" if the U.S. does not make necessary concessions. (CCTV) - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs called for efforts to secure grain production, strengthen regulation of swine production capacity, and advance rural revitalization priorities. - PBS cited Trump saying it is "very likely" the war with Iran can end. He suggested a deal could include Iran shipping highly enriched uranium to the United States and not operating underground nuclear facilities; he said if talks fail the U.S. would "bomb them hard again." Thursday - Middle Eastern media reported the U.S. and Iran had reached an arrangement to ease the U.S. maritime blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; neither side confirmed. (Xinhua International) - The People's Bank of China reported gold reserves rose for an 18th straight month: end-April reserves were 74.64 million troy ounces (~2,321.56 metric tons), up 260,000 troy ounces (~8.09 metric tons) from end-March. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange said it suspended the registered brand status of "Daquan" polysilicon futures with immediate effect. - Pakistani officials said preparations were underway in Islamabad for potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and possibly a signing ceremony, with security arrangements also discussed in Rawalpindi. (Xinhua) - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported U.S. companies announced 83,387 layoffs in April (+38% m/m, -21% y/y). Year-to-date layoffs totaled 300,749 (-50% y/y). Tech announced 33,361 layoffs in April; YTD tech layoffs reached 85,411 (+33% y/y). Government agencies announced 9,149 layoffs (highest since March 2025). Pharmaceuticals reported 7,440 layoffs through April (+500% y/y). AI was the top cited driver for a second straight month: 21,490 layoffs in April (26% of total) and 49,135 YTD. - Saudi outlets Alhadath and Al Arabiya reported a U.S.-Iran agreement to ease maritime blockades in exchange for gradual reopening of Hormuz, with near-term breakthroughs for stranded vessels expected. Oil prices briefly dropped (WTI down more than 3% intraday; Brent down nearly 3%). Spot gold rose above $4,750/oz and silver reached $79/oz. - Wang Yi met a U.S. Senate delegation led by Daines, calling for properly managing mutual perceptions, respecting core interests, and pursuing "harmony in diversity" and partnership rather than rivalry. (Xinhua) - Iranian media said the IRGC Navy designated two shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, but vessels still require Iranian permission to transit. (Xinhua) - The World Gold Council said global physical gold ETFs saw $6.6 billion in net inflows in April, reversing March outflows. AUM rose 1% m/m to $615 billion; holdings rose 1% to 4,137 metric tons (third-highest on record). Europe led with $3.7 billion in inflows. Asia recorded an eighth straight month of inflows, adding $1.8 billion; Hong Kong SAR saw $732 million (a monthly record) and mainland China added $498 million; India added $297 million (11th straight month) and Japan $246 million. - South Korea extended its ban on hoarding and monopolization of petroleum products through end-July to address shortages tied to the Middle East conflict and stabilize prices. (CCTV) Friday - Sources in Pakistan said Iranian officials were expected to formally respond on May 8 with feedback on the U.S. assessment of Iran's 14-point proposal, which seeks to end hostilities and open a 30-day window for detailed talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and secure passage through Hormuz. The proposal reportedly includes guarantees against further military aggression, compensation from U.S. forces, and a new management mechanism for the strait. (CCTV News) - FAO said the Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April to an average 130.7 points (+1.6% m/m, +2.0% y/y). The Cereal Price Index rose 0.8% m/m (+0.4% y/y). Global wheat prices rose 0.8% m/m; FAO cited high energy costs and disruptions linked to the de facto closure of Hormuz lifting fertilizer prices, encouraging shifts to crops requiring less fertilizer and potentially reducing 2026 wheat planting area. (CCTV News) - Radio recordings from crews near Hormuz suggested two tankers were attacked on May 8 and requested assistance; the ships named "SEASTARIII" and "SEVDA" were identified as Iranian tankers. (Xinhua) - Freeport representatives said the Grasberg restart schedule remains as previously disclosed: restart in Block 1S of the Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) in Q2 2027 and resume production in Block 1C by end-2027. (SMM) - Fertilizer prices surged as transport disruptions halted supply from a urea facility in Qatar. Granular urea at the U.S. Gulf Coast on the Chicago Board of Trade exceeded $700/ton in April, up more than 80% from February. Analysts warned high fertilizer costs may force reduced usage, raising crop-yield risks; groups including the International Grains Council have begun lowering next-season grain output forecasts. (CCTV Finance) - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry held a hearing on revisions to Government Regulation No. 19/2025 on royalties. For nickel ore, it proposed lowering the HMA threshold for the lowest tier from below $18,000/ton to below $16,000/ton and reducing the highest-tier threshold from not less than $31,000/ton to not less than $26,000/ton; rate tiers would be refined from five to six with a 14%–19% range. Based on an HMA of $17,802/ton, the applicable tariff would rise from 14% to 15% if implemented. New levies were proposed: 2% for cobalt in nickel matte and in non-nickel smelting products, and 2.5% for ferroalloy pig iron. (SMM) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Market reaction: U.S. stock index futures rose, Treasury yields fell further, and the dollar weakened. The report pointed to stabilization after near-zero growth last year, with low layoffs and tax cuts supporting spending and investment; attention remains on inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict. Job gains were led by healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade; manufacturing employment edged lower. - Satellite imagery suggested a potential oil spill near Iran's Kharg Island, covering roughly 45 square kilometers; the cause and source were unclear and May 8 images showed no sign of ongoing leakage. - Iran's IRGC said Iranian forces had "sporadic clashes" with U.S. naval vessels in Hormuz waters on May 8; no location details were provided. Reports also mentioned an explosion in Iran's Sirik region near Hormuz, with the cause unknown. (CCTV) - China's coal market activity increased as coastal power plants accelerated restocking ahead of summer. Traders cited tighter import supply and higher shipping costs, with Indonesian coal export prices rising and partial production restrictions. As of May 6, the CIF price for 3,800 kcal/kg coal in South China reached RMB 602/ton, up RMB 171 year-to-date, prompting some buyers to shift from imports to domestic coal amid price inversion. Saturday - China's State Council executive meeting approved the draft Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law, calling for stronger full-chain resource management, a scientific list of strategic minerals, and improved reserves and emergency systems. (CCTV) - The State Council reviewed progress on resolving local government debt risks, urging continued focus on key areas, stronger policy support, improved local repayment capacity, timely completion of goals, and mechanisms to prevent new hidden debt. (CCTV) - China Gold Association data: In Q1 2026, domestic raw material gold output was 81.065 tons (-7.08% y/y). Imported raw material gold output was 55.165 tons (+2.94% y/y). Combined output was 136.230 tons (-3.27% y/y). Q1 gold consumption was 303.292 tons (+4.41% y/y): jewelry 84.620 tons (-37.10%), bars and coins 202.062 tons (+46.40%), industrial/other 16.610 tons (-7.43%). - China Iron and Steel Association data for late April 2026: key enterprises produced 20.36 million tons of crude steel (avg 2.036 million tons/day, -3.6% vs prior period), 18.50 million tons of pig iron (avg 1.850 million tons/day, -2.5%), and 21.55 million tons of steel products (avg 2.155 million tons/day, +7.0%). Estimated national daily output: crude steel 2.73 million tons/day (-2.3%), pig iron 2.33 million tons/day (-2.4%), steel products 4.28 million tons/day (+3.0%). Steel product inventories at key enterprises were 15.43 million tons (-17.2% vs prior period), +9.1% vs start of year, -6.8% vs same period last month, +0.9% y/y, and -2.8% vs two years ago. - Liaoning Province issued a draft plan to promote methanol vehicles, targeting annual production capacity of over 50,000 units by end-2028, supporting green methanol projects and refueling station retrofits; public comments are open through May 17, 2026. (People's Daily) - Trump said the U.S. may revive the "Freedom Plan" operation aimed at easing stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and expected Iran's response that evening regarding a U.S.-proposed Iran nuclear deal. He said an upgraded version could add measures beyond the original plan. (Xinhua) Sunday - Vessel-tracking data updated May 10 by the Maritime Traffic Website showed a Qatari LNG carrier successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Gulf of Oman, heading for Pakistan. It was the first Qatari LNG vessel to make the passage since U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began about 70 days ago. The route indicated use of a newly activated shipping lane recently opened by Iran. The ship broadcast its AIS position on May 9 showing entry into the strait, then stopped transmitting for an extended period; updated data on May 10 confirmed the transit. (Xinhua) - Iran's navy commander Shahram Irani said domestically built light submarines are on standby in the Strait of Hormuz, deployed dynamically based on threat levels, capabilities, and operational needs. (CCTV News) - Fars News Agency reported Iran is seeking to impose licensing, fees, and legal jurisdiction over foreign operators of undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz and wants management and maintenance to be handled exclusively by domestic companies. The IRGC has previously warned of potential attacks on subsea cable infrastructure.