Prediction Markets Become a Real-Time Gauge of Geopolitical Risk; Bitcoin Volatility Tied to Iran Tensions

ME News reported that on April 6 (UTC+8), Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, said prediction markets are increasingly acting as a "real-time radar" for traders tracking macro risk during the flare-up in Iran-related tensions. Dori noted that platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi rapidly repriced the probabilities of whether the U.S. would further escalate the conflict, with those shifts closely tracking moves in Bitcoin. By putting real money behind clearly defined, binary outcomes, prediction markets can deliver more differentiated signals for crypto, an asset class he said is heavily influenced by regulated, geopolitical, and protocol-upgrade-driven event risks. Market data shows prediction markets logged about 191 million trades in March, up 2,838% year over year. Monthly notional trading volume rose to roughly $23.9 billion. Dori added that some professional trading teams have incorporated prediction markets into their macro frameworks, pairing them with indicators such as funding rates, options positioning, and capital flows to shape strategies ahead of major events. (Source: ODAILY)