Powell Flags Stubborn Inflation, Pressuring Stocks, Oil and Bitcoin Around March FOMC Meeting

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75% and maintained projections for just one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 during the March 18 FOMC meeting, while Chair Jerome Powell said progress on inflation would be slower than desired and raised the 2026 PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.7%, above the 2% target. U.S. equities slid, oil prices surged above $119 per barrel amid conflict-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bitcoin reversed from above $74,000 as the crypto market showed a familiar "sell the news" pattern that, according to data from Two Prime, has followed 7 of the last 8 FOMC meetings with negative 48-hour BTC returns. Powell noted that higher energy prices are "certainly" reflected in the Fed's inflation outlook and lifted this year's projection to 2.7% from 2.4%, while dismissing 1970s-style "stagflation" comparisons and signaling that most FOMC members do not see rate hikes as the baseline but will not cut until inflation improves more clearly. Market focus has shifted to ETF flows, with sustained net inflows on March 19–20 into Farside Investors' Bitcoin ETF suggesting institutions viewed the decision as positive or neutral, and the current Fed stance implying a likely near-term BTC trading range around $68,000–$74,000 after a possible short-term pullback as investors reassess risk assets under a hotter inflation outlook and delayed easing path.