Polymarket odds of U.S. invading Iran before March 31 fall to 11%

Odaily Seer data show Polymarket now prices an 11% chance of a U.S. invasion of Iran before March 31, down 6 percentage points over the past 24 hours. The probability of a U.S. invasion before April 30 stands at 62%, up 3 percentage points in the same period. Total trading volume on the related event contract has exceeded $42.6 million. U.S. officials said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of potential ground operations in Iran as thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines deploy to the Middle East, a move that could mark a more dangerous phase of the conflict if President Trump opts to escalate. Officials emphasized that any ground action would not be a full-scale invasion, but could include coordinated raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. They warned such missions could expose U.S. personnel to threats including Iranian drones and missiles, small-arms fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it remained unclear whether Trump would approve the Pentagon's plan in full, in part, or reject it. Odaily Seer's Prediction Channel continues to track shifts in prediction-market pricing.