Polymarket Odds of Strait of Hormuz Returning to Normal by April 30 Slide to 30%

Monitoring by Seer Prophet Channel shows Polymarket pricing now implies a 30% chance that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 30, down 24 percentage points over the past 24 hours. Trading volume in the related event contract has surpassed $15.9 million. Under the contract rules, the outcome settles as "Yes" if IMF Portwatch data indicates the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals reaches or exceeds 60; otherwise it settles as "No". The update comes as Iran has declined to enter new negotiations, citing U.S. maritime blockades and what it describes as excessive demands. Oil-tanker tracking services also report that two Indian vessels were turned back by the Iranian navy, with shots exchanged.