Fed December Rate Cut Odds Slip to 88.8% After ADP Jobs Data

The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell to 88.8% following the December 3 ADP employment report, down from 89.2% before the release, CME FedWatch Tool data show. The odds of rates holding steady stood at 11.2%. For the January meeting, the likelihood of no change was 29.5%, while probabilities for a cumulative 25 basis point cut and 50 basis point cut were 63% and 7.8%, respectively. The Fed's next FOMC meetings are scheduled for December 10 and January 28, 2026.