Fed December Rate Cut Probability at 89.2% Before ADP Data

The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December stood at 89.2% before the Dec. 3 ADP employment data release, with a 10.8% chance of rates remaining unchanged, CME FedWatch data show. For the cumulative outlook through January 2025, the tool showed a 66.6% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, a 25.7% probability of a 50 basis point cut, and a 7.7% chance of no change.