Fed December Rate Cut Probability at 86.4%, CME FedWatch Shows

The Federal Reserve has an 86.4% probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points in December, with a 13.6% chance of holding steady, CME FedWatch data show as of Nov. 30. The elevated odds have held since Nov. 26, following a decline in U.S. initial jobless claims. For the January 2026 meeting, probabilities show a 10% chance of no change, 67% for a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and 23% for a cumulative 50 basis point reduction. The Fed's next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for Dec. 10 and Jan. 28, 2026.