Fed December Rate Cut Probability Rises to 71.3% After Dovish Comments

The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December rose to 71.3%, CME FedWatch data showed on Nov. 22. The shift follows dovish remarks from multiple Fed officials, reviving rate cut expectations after the probability had previously fallen below 30%. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged in December stands at 8.2%, while January 2026 meeting probabilities show 19.2% for unchanged rates, 57.1% for a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and 23.7% for a cumulative 50 basis point reduction. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for Dec. 10 and Jan. 28, 2026.