Bitcoin Shows Negative Correlation with Japan's 10-Year JGB as Yields Spike 3.65 Standard Deviations Above Long-Term Mean

Bitcoin's price has remained largely flat while gold continues to rise, a pattern Delphi Digital links to developments in Japanese government bonds, the firm said on Jan. 23. The yield on Japan's 10-year JGB is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term mean, and when gold and yields advance together, markets are pricing policy strain and balance sheet fragility rather than economic growth, Delphi Digital said. The firm noted the Bank of Japan is structurally long-duration and heavily exposed to JGBs on both the asset and collateral side, with gold absorbing this pressure while Bitcoin has shown a negative correlation to the 10-year JGB and has tended to struggle as Japanese yields climb. If the Bank of Japan steps in to stabilize the JGB market, the risk premium embedded in gold could ease, potentially giving Bitcoin room to rebound, Delphi Digital added.