Crypto Prediction Markets Record $95.93M Daily Volume Amid U.S.-Israel Strike on Iran and Khamenei Death

Polymarket and Kalshi recorded surging trading activity following a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike on Iran on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Polymarket's market on whether Khamenei would step down before February 28 reaching single-day volume of $95.93 million that day and $54.15 million on March 31, Foresight News reports. Polymarket's Khamenei-related contract resolved as "Yes" after confirmation of his death, while Kalshi's "Will Khamenei step down?" market reached tens of millions of dollars in volume before being suspended under a "death not settled" clause, with CEO Tarek Mansour stating on X the platform would settle based on the last trade price before his death and refund all fees. Blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps reported six newly created Polymarket wallets collectively gained about $1 million from positions on U.S. strikes on Iran opened at prices near $0.10 hours before the attack, though the firm noted prior public warnings by the U.S. government meant timing alone could not prove illegal insider trading as global regulators including the CFTC increase scrutiny of prediction markets.