Coinbase Institutional Strikes Neutral Tone on Q2 Markets as Macro and Geopolitical Risks Cloud Outlook

Coinbase Institutional has adopted a neutral stance for second-quarter markets, arguing that heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty— including tensions tied to the Iran conflict—has made near-term forecasts unusually unreliable. The firm pointed to the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, which showed cash allocations climbing nearly 1 percentage point in a single month to 4.3%, the fastest pace of cash buildup in five years. Coinbase also highlighted relative resilience in crypto: while the S&P 500 recently suffered a three- to four-standard-deviation drop, Bitcoin declined by roughly one standard deviation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $471 million in net inflows on April 6, the strongest one-day intake in six weeks, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Coinbase estimates institutional ownership has increased from 24% a year ago to around 38%, with hedge funds, pension funds and other investors holding more than $40 billion in assets. Morgan Stanley began listing its Bitcoin ETF on the NYSE on April 8, becoming the first major U.S. bank to directly launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.