Oil outlook turns darker: $90 Brent seen as "best case", Hormuz blockage could lift prices to $130

May 19 — Francisco Blanch, Bank of America's head of commodities and derivatives research, said Brent averaging $90 a barrel for the rest of the year should already be viewed as a "best-case scenario." He estimated the global crude market is running a shortfall of 14–15 million barrels a day, roughly 14%–15% of demand. Blanch warned that if a dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, crude could climb to $120–$130 by late June to early July. Further escalation that damages oil infrastructure could trigger an even sharper spike. With the Hormuz crisis unlikely to be resolved quickly, several Wall Street firms have lifted price forecasts. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent target to about $90, while JPMorgan cautioned that a sustained maritime bottleneck lasting four weeks could create a "catastrophic" global oil shortage. RBC analyst Helima Croft also said she doubts shipping can return to normal by June. Brent is up 80% year to date and was last at $109.26 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil flows, making any disruption especially acute for Asia-Pacific and likely to keep pushing costs higher for consumers and industry worldwide. Brown University data show that since the outbreak of the Iran war, U.S. consumers have paid more than $40 billion in additional fuel costs. (Jinshi)