Bitcoin hits three-week low as Treasury yields climb and U.S. spot ETF outflows surge
Bitcoin slid to its lowest level in three weeks after a weekend of heavy deleveraging across crypto markets, with more than $670 million in liquidations, CoinDesk reported.
The move coincided with a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields that weighed on risk appetite and triggered the biggest weekly outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since late January. The Koberci Newsletter said the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on Sunday night, the highest since February 2025 and up about 70 basis points since the outbreak of the war in Iran. The yield also moved four basis points above the level that led President Trump to pause additional tariffs for 90 days in April 2025.
With U.S. mortgage rates approaching 7%, the market's implied odds of any rate cuts this year fell to 2%, as Koberci characterized the situation as the U.S. bond market "collapsing in real time."
Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital, said pressure is increasingly flowing into crypto through institutional channels rather than direct geopolitical reactions. In his view, higher Treasury yields and weaker risk appetite are squeezing ETF flows and, in turn, Bitcoin.
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest weekly outflow since late January. Data cited in the report put net outflows at about $1 billion for the week ending May 15. SoSoValue figures were also referenced, including a net inflow reading of $622.75 million for the prior week. The last comparable episode was the week ending Jan. 30, when roughly $1.49 billion left the funds.
As bond-market stress intensified, Bitcoin traded near $76,770, down about 2% over the past 24 hours. CoinGecko data also showed total crypto liquidations above $672 million, according to CoinGlass.
On prediction markets tied to Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders trimmed bullish expectations. The probability assigned to Bitcoin's next move being a rebound to $84,000 fell to 74% from 89% on Thursday.
Martin flagged $77,000 as a critical level. If Bitcoin breaks below $77,000 while perpetual futures open interest remains elevated, he said deleveraging could accelerate quickly, raising the risk of a slide toward $70,000 or lower. He added that ETF flow data over the next 48 hours will be closely watched.
Derivatives trader and TYMIO founder Georgii Verbitskii said Bitcoin's near-term direction may hinge on whether the AI-driven equity rally can persist. Despite strong gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, he noted Bitcoin's rebound has been comparatively muted, signaling limited organic demand at current prices. If AI-driven trading reverses or fades, Verbitskii warned Bitcoin could face a sharper drop given the lack of strong standalone demand drivers.
