Bitcoin Slides Below $66,000 as Analysts Flag Risk of a 45% Pullback
Bitcoin’s latest selloff is reviving worries about the next phase of price action, with analysts pointing to key closes that could mark the start of another sizable correction.
On Friday, BTC dropped more than 7% intraday to a three-week low near $65,700. Since the early-February plunge, Bitcoin has largely ranged between $65,000 and $72,000.
Analyst Altcoin Sherpa said defending current levels is critical. A break could quickly push BTC another 6% to 10% lower toward the next support zone around $60,000 to $62,000.
Other observers said Bitcoin is weakening within a bearish setup that could open the door to fresh lows if a rebound fails to materialize. BTC has spent nearly two months forming a bear-flag pattern on the daily chart, repeatedly testing the lower boundary. That floor now looks increasingly vulnerable.
Ted Pillows wrote on X that Bitcoin is not only falling but also losing momentum after breaking its RSI uptrend, calling it a "major sign of weakness." He added that a breakdown is "only a matter of when, not if," noting BTC already broke down from a similar two-month bear flag earlier this year.
Ali Martinez said historical patterns over the past decade suggest Bitcoin could fall another 30% to 45%. He argued new bull runs have tended to begin after BTC drops below the long-term holder realized price and its −0.2 standard deviation band, which he placed at $48,387 and $36,657, respectively. "I'll be watching these zones for dip-buying opportunities ahead of the next bull cycle," he said.
Attention is also turning to Bitcoin’s weekly close. Analyst Rekt Capital noted BTC has again slipped below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which is now being treated as resistance. He warned that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 200-week EMA and posts another weekly close beneath it, the level could flip into sustained resistance.
Rekt Capital said last week’s close technically came in below the 200W EMA after an attempted "post-breakout retest" failed to hold above the $68,000 area. In his view, that action effectively started a breakdown from the EMA, and another weekly close below it would confirm the move. He added there may be room for another dip back into the 200-week EMA for a retest, but argued the bigger takeaway is continued indecision, with the 200-week EMA acting as unreliable support and unreliable resistance.
He said that lack of clarity could keep drawing price back to the area for further retests "before ultimately breaking down into additional Macro Downside over time."
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $65,600, down about 6% over the past week.
