Bitcoin Slips Below 200-Day Moving Average as Demand Fades and ETF Flows Turn Negative
Bitcoin’s rebound from its February trough, which had started to resemble the early stages of a fresh bull run, ran into stiff resistance last week at its 200-day simple moving average, just above $82,000. After failing to break through that level, BTC pulled back to around $77,500. The setup echoes 2022, when a 43% relief rally also stalled at the same long-term indicator before the broader downtrend resumed.
CryptoQuant, in a new report, argues the miss at the 200-day SMA reflects a more fundamental problem: weakening demand. The firm says the April and early May advance was underpinned by three pillars—leveraged futures positioning, spot buying, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows—and all three have now deteriorated.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has dropped from 40 to 20, a level it labels "extremely bearish." The index last printed similarly during February–March, when bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000.
One of the cleanest demand checks, the report notes, is the Coinbase bitcoin premium. That measure stayed negative through much of May’s rally and the subsequent pullback, indicating BTC was not trading at a premium on Coinbase relative to offshore venues. A positive premium is typically read as stronger U.S. demand; a negative reading suggests U.S. investors are not paying up for exposure.
ETF flows have also turned in the same direction. Data from SoSoValue show U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted about $979.7 million of net outflows in the week ended May 19, following roughly $1 billion in outflows the prior week. The swing comes after six consecutive weeks of inflows that helped power the rally.
Outside the U.S., CryptoQuant points to additional signs of softening interest. Korea’s "kimchi premium," a proxy for demand on domestic exchanges, has fallen below zero, implying no above-normal bid in the market. In Hong Kong, the three spot bitcoin ETFs operated by ChinaAMC, Bosera Hashkey, and Harvest have generally struggled to reach more than a few million dollars in combined daily trading volume through May.
Should the correction extend, CryptoQuant flags $70,000—the on-chain realized price for traders—as the next major support level. That threshold capped upside attempts in October and January; the firm says it may now need to act as a floor.
