Bitcoin Up More Than 14% in April as Geopolitical Headlines and Volatility Drive Swings

QCP Group notes that U.S.-Iran talks have broken down again, while the Middle East ceasefire remains in place, leaving the broader geopolitical backdrop largely unchanged. Separately, a shooting was reported around the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Donald Trump believed to have been the intended target. After Asia opened, BTC briefly jumped above $79,000 and ETH cleared $2,400, before both pulled back as traders reacted to reports that Iran's foreign minister was heading to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin. Since the start of April, BTC is up more than 14%, extending its streak to four straight weeks of gains. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted nine consecutive sessions of net inflows totaling about $2.11 billion. Strategy has added more than $3.8 billion worth of BTC this month. Technically, QCP flags the CME gap near $82,000 as the key resistance level. BTC perpetual funding rates remain negative, and a move through that area could spark short covering. Implied volatility continues to grind lower, while risk-reversal skew has narrowed modestly, suggesting demand for upside exposure is gradually returning. Market focus this week includes earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google, along with the April 29 FOMC rate decision. On April 30, investors will watch Apple earnings, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE inflation data.