Bitcoin on-chain activity nears record levels even as price slips

CoinMarketCap reports that Bitcoin's retreat to around $60,000 has not been matched by a slowdown in on-chain activity. AMBCrypto, citing analysts, said the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin transaction count is approaching historical highs, a setup that may point to large-scale position reshuffling rather than fresh demand. Analyst Darkfost noted that the 30-day moving average is about 640,000 transactions, close to the 660,000 peak recorded during the September 2024 correction. Elevated transaction activity typically accompanies strong uptrends or markets nearing a local peak. This time, the rise in transactions has come alongside falling prices, which the report interprets as concentrated transfers of holdings instead of buying-led upside. The article added that short-term holders have been selling at a loss and capital has continued to exit Bitcoin, suggesting risk appetite remains subdued. Mining conditions are also tightening. Over the past month, estimated production costs were roughly $43,000 per BTC, while spot prices fell from above $80,000 to near $60,000. As a result, miners' profit margins reportedly compressed from 98% to 47%. Average daily hash rate dropped about 33% over three weeks, though the 30-day moving average remains above the 60-day moving average, meaning a longer-term trend reversal has yet to be confirmed. Miner transfers to exchanges have climbed sharply as well. Daily inflows have recently reached 10,000 to 12,000 BTC, far above the typical 1,000 to 3,000 BTC range, a pattern often associated with rising sell pressure. The report concluded that the current sell-driven chain reaction may not be finished and a clear local bottom has yet to form. Under extreme panic, if selling continues, Bitcoin could still slide toward $51,000.