Arthur Hayes ties potential U.S.–Iran conflict and Fed easing to Bitcoin upside risk

Arthur Hayes argues that major U.S. military engagements in the Middle East have historically preceded easier Federal Reserve policy, which can support risk assets such as Bitcoin. Reviewing conflicts from the 1990 Gulf War through the post-2001 Global War on Terror to the Afghanistan surge, he notes the Fed repeatedly cut rates or supplied abundant liquidity after these episodes despite pressures from higher oil prices, according to his article. Looking ahead to possible U.S. action toward Iran under Donald Trump, Hayes contends that any renewed monetary easing to finance large-scale spending could create a favorable environment for crypto, and he suggests waiting for clear Fed rate cuts or renewed money printing before accumulating Bitcoin and what he describes as high-quality altcoins like $HYPE.