SpaceX explores xAI merger, possible Tesla deal ahead of IPO; 50% odds by mid-2026

SpaceX is in early talks to merge with xAI and has also weighed a broader combination that could involve Tesla, according to Reuters. The discussions tie into a potential public listing expected later this year, while prediction market odds imply roughly a 50% chance of a SpaceX–xAI deal by mid‑2026 versus about 16% for a Tesla–xAI combination.