Markets Eye November CPI as First US Inflation Print Since Shutdown and Guide for 2026 Fed Path

US November CPI data, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is forecast to show headline and core inflation at 3.1% year over year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. This will be the first official inflation update since September after a 43-day government shutdown delayed October data, and it comes as mixed labor figures and futures pricing suggest the Fed is likely to hold rates at its January 2026 meeting.