Bitcoin Halving Cycle Reframed as Liquidity-Driven Phases, Not a Strict Four-Year Clock

An analyst known as Deg_ape argues that the Bitcoin halving has never functioned as a rigid four-year clock, but rather as a structural anchor within broader liquidity and macro cycles. According to this view, macro bear phases expand and overlap as liquidity conditions shift, with recent data showing around $130 billion in new liquidity injections and a historic 30-day balance decline among retail wallets while larger holders accumulate. This divergence suggests that price action may lag underlying liquidity, driving capitulation among smaller investors even as bigger players reposition for the longer term.