CME FedWatch Indicates 75.6% Probability of Federal Reserve Rate Hold in January

CME FedWatch data updated on December 18 shows a 75.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its January meeting, versus a 24.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. For March, markets price a 46% likelihood of no change, a 44.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and a 9.5% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, offering insight into expectations for the Fed’s near-term policy path.