Bitcoin May Trade Between $68,000 and $80,000 Around Fed Decision as Futures Price in No Change

Bitcoin is trading near $74,000 this week and could fluctuate between $68,000 support and $80,000 around the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision, according to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live. Futures markets imply a 99% chance of no policy change at this month's meeting and a 97% probability of no move at next month's meeting, with the Fear & Greed Index at neutral. Adam said on X that a hawkish dot plot showing only one or zero rate cuts in 2026 could tighten liquidity and make a retest of $68,000 highly probable, while a dovish surprise from Jerome Powell mentioning "inflation under control" or "monitoring the labor market" might improve liquidity expectations and drive prices toward $80,000. He added that uncertainty around potential future Fed chair Kevin Warsh and the risk of a perceived policy vacuum or more hawkish leadership could prompt institutional funds to adopt risk-off positioning ahead of the April meeting, with sharp volatility in altcoins also highlighted.