Bitcoin has been trading sideways since late November around the $90,000–$91,000 zone after failing to hold above its October 2025 peak. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the current drawdown from the October high is about −27%, with a maximum pullback near −33%, far milder than earlier cycles that saw declines of −75% to −92%. CVDD model readings show BTC still trading roughly 2x above its long‑term on‑chain fair value near $46,600, suggesting the market has not yet entered a classic capitulation phase.

As January nears its end, Bitcoin is trading above $85k while 30-day open interest sits at its lowest level since 2022, indicating a market that has shifted away from excessive leverage. At the same time, U.S. job openings have fallen by 885k over the past 12 months and markets see only a 13% chance of an imminent rate cut, keeping broader sentiment cautious. If this combination of subdued positioning and macro uncertainty persists, a gradual move toward the $100k level by the first week of February remains within reach.

Bitcoin's price recently slipped under $90,000 before recovering to about $91,390, and analysts have highlighted several critical levels that could shape its short-term path. They point to supports around $89,200, $87,500 and $87,200, warning that a break could open the way to about $69,230, while upside scenarios involve reclaiming the $94,000–$95,000 band and potentially extending toward $102,000–$103,000 or even $135,000.

Bitcoin has been consolidating around the $90k area in January, struggling to break above the $94.5k resistance while trading between $89.3k and $91k. Over the same period, Open Interest climbed from $54.62 billion to $62.14 billion before stalling, and long positions have seen hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations. Spot ETF products also registered $1.128 billion in outflows since 06 January, keeping crypto longs cautious despite short-term bounces.

On 10 January 2026, on-chain metrics indicated that Bitcoin addresses holding more than 100 BTC climbed to a new all-time high while the spot price hovered around $90,000. Large holders continued to build exposure during this consolidation phase, with daily trading volume near $40 billion and circulating supply just under 20 million BTC, pointing to constrained supply and long-term positioning.

VanEck set a base-case path for Bitcoin to reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050, versus a bear case of $130k and a bull case of $53.4 million. Matthew Sigel linked the target to BTC's potential roles in trade settlement and central bank reserves, while near-term action centers on defending the $90k area.

At the start of 2026, Bitcoin rebounded toward its weekly range high, reaching $94,800 amid improving sentiment and trading activity. After failing to hold above $95,000, the price is retesting support around the 20-day moving average near $89,400, while technical levels and liquidation clusters suggest another futures-led push toward $95,000 and possibly $101,500. Recent data also show nearly $1.1 billion in futures buy volume accompanying the Jan. 5 rally, triggering about $100 million in short liquidations on the BTC/USDT pair at Binance.

On January 8, 2026, engineer David said Bitcoin's miner energy floor is $93,000, with full-cycle break-even near $96,000. He noted roughly $1.2 billion flowed into spot ETFs this week while miner hedging compressed price around $90,000–$96,000. Hedge strength sits near 100% at the year's start and is projected to drop toward ~43% by late January.