More than four out of five Polymarket traders are in the red. Independent onchain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov reported on April 6 that 84.1% of all traders on the platform have overall losses. The analysis reviewed 2.5 million wallet addresses and examined Polygon onchain transaction data using Dune Analytics. Over the past year, Sergeenkov found that only 2% of traders have ever cleared more than $1,000 in lifetime profit on Polymarket. Just 0.033%—840 addresses—have made $100,000 from trading. The research also challenges the idea that users can reliably earn a living from Polymarket. Looking at the probability of consistently making $5,000 per month—slightly below the average monthly U.S. salary—Sergeenkov concluded the odds are under 1% in any given month, and become worse over time. "Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave," the report states. Among roughly 6,600 traders who averaged more than $5,000 in monthly profit, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year. The report adds to a broader body of evidence about trader outcomes. A separate study published in December 2025, which analyzed 124 million Polymarket trades, found 70% were unprofitable. The findings arrive as Polymarket pushes further into the mainstream. Earlier this month, it became MLB's exclusive prediction market partner, as The Defiant reported. Polymarket is currently the largest onchain prediction market platform and ranks second overall by notional volume: $9.8 billion over the past 30 days, according to Token Terminal, behind Kalshi at $12.5 billion. Polymarket also launched a new referral program this month aimed at driving retail signups through influencers. Sergeenkov warned that without stronger user education, the program could amplify losses. Prediction market volumes expanded 130x from 2024 through 2025, drawing heightened regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. In recent months, the Trump administration's CFTC has signaled support for federal oversight of prediction market platforms and has initiated a broad sector review. Polymarket added another piece to its infrastructure plans on April 6, unveiling Polymarket USD, a proprietary stablecoin intended to replace bridged USDC.e as the platform's collateral token. The company described the move as part of a major upgrade. As The Defiant has reported, Polymarket's crowdsourced odds are increasingly cited as among the most accurate forecasting tools available—a reputation that sits uneasily alongside the latest data on individual trader profitability. This article was produced with assistance from AI workflows. All stories are curated, edited, and fact-checked by a human.

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