Author: Shenchao TechFlow U.S. stocks: Four-day rally, with a high-stakes clock ticking Wall Street reopened Monday after a three-day break to digest two market-moving forces: a blockbuster March jobs report released during Friday's holiday, and a fresh ultimatum from President Trump tied to the Strait of Hormuz. March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, roughly triple Wall Street's 60,000 estimate. The unemployment rate eased to 4.3% from 4.4%. Hiring was led by healthcare (+76,000), boosted by 31,000 nurses returning after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended in February. Construction added 26,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing 21,000, and manufacturing 15,000. Federal government payrolls fell by 18,000, while financial services shed 15,000. Revisions drew attention as well: February payrolls were sharply revised from 92,000 to 133,000. That implies the February slowdown was more severe than previously understood. First-quarter average monthly job gains came in at 68,000—a pace that would have set off recession alarms two years ago. But in 2026, the bar may be different: Dallas Fed research argues that lower immigration and weaker labor-force participation have pushed the 'breakeven' job growth needed to keep unemployment stable close to zero. Markets leaned into that interpretation. The Dow rose 165 points (+0.36%) to 46,669.88. The S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83, extending its longest streak since January with a fourth straight advance. The Nasdaq added 0.54% to 21,996.34. Stagflation signals show up in services The ISM services report delivered an uncomfortable mix. The headline index slipped to 54, still expansionary, but the prices gauge jumped to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. The employment component sank to 45.2, the lowest since December 2023. The implication: firms are pushing prices higher while cutting jobs. Treasuries sold off after the payrolls data, sending the 10-year yield to around 4.35%. The bond market message: expectations for rate cuts are getting squeezed. Morgan Stanley's Caldwell said the report gives the Fed more confidence to stay on hold, and markets have begun to assign a small probability to rate hikes later this year. Stocks in focus: Megacaps lift, Tesla pressured Big tech helped anchor the tape. Alphabet and Amazon each climbed more than 1%, and Micron Technology rose 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow with a 1.92% gain. Tesla fell 2.2%. JPMorgan analyst Brinkman reiterated his 'significantly undervalued' view with a $145 target, implying roughly 60% downside from current levels. He pointed to a disconnect: Tesla shares sit about 50% above June 2022 levels, when deliveries peaked, even as first-quarter deliveries were more than one million units below what analysts expected back then. Transport shares flashed caution. The Dow Transportation Index slid 9% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day drop since the 'Liberation Day' selloff in April last year. United Airlines dropped more than 6%, Uber fell 3.5%, and XPO lost 3.5%, reinforcing concerns that growth risks remain elevated. Geopolitics: Trump threatens strikes if Strait of Hormuz not reopened Markets also tracked Trump's comments at Monday's press conference: if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Tuesday, the U.S. will destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. On Truth Social he wrote: 'Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day—combined. Unprecedented!' Diplomacy continued in parallel. Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional intermediaries are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire. Reuters said Iran and the U.S. received a peace proposal that includes an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the strait. No party had formally accepted the plan as of publication. Oil: A $119 shock, then a pullback When crude futures reopened Sunday night, both WTI and Brent briefly surged to $119, the highest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Unusually, the two benchmarks traded at parity; WTI typically carries a $3 to $7 discount to Brent, and the gap closing suggests extreme stress across the global pricing system. Ceasefire chatter later pressured prices. By the U.S. equity close Monday, WTI had slipped to around $112, still above last Thursday's $111.54 close. Traders are pricing a binary path. If an agreement—even an imprecise one—emerges before Tuesday at 8 a.m., oil could drop $20–$30 within 48 hours. If strikes hit Iranian infrastructure, prices could surge to $130 or even $150. Analysts also warn that even a rapid end to fighting may not quickly normalize the system: six weeks of disruption have inflicted structural damage on global refining and logistics capacity, which could take months to restore. Gold: Holding range as central banks keep buying Gold traded quietly between $4,660 and $4,680 per ounce on Monday. With a major escalation-or-resolution window approaching, the metal neither broke higher nor sold off—it waited. After hitting a record $5,595 in January, gold has pulled back nearly 17%. The $4,600–$4,700 area is increasingly viewed as a base. State Street's monthly gold monitor outlines a base-case range of $4,750–$5,500 (50% probability) and a bull-case range of $5,500–$6,250 (35% probability), while calling $4,400–$4,600 'strong support.' A longer-term shift continues in the background: the U.S. dollar's share of global FX reserves has slipped to around 40%, the lowest since 1994, while gold's share has climbed to around 30%, the highest since 1991. Crypto: Relief bounce on ceasefire talk, but positioning stays defensive Cryptocurrencies posted their strongest rally in weeks. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin rose about 3.5% to roughly $69,700, briefly trading above $69,200 intraday. Ether gained 4.8% to $2,149, lifting total crypto market value back to $2.45 trillion. The spark was ceasefire speculation, but market structure suggests short covering dominated. Open interest fell 8% during the rebound, funding rates stayed negative at 0.003%, and the perpetual-futures annualized premium compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Volume remains 18% below the 30-day average. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) said it bought another $330 million of Bitcoin between April 1 and 5, reinforcing its status as the largest corporate BTC holder. Strategy shares rose 4.7% Monday versus a 3.7% gain in Bitcoin. The company now holds roughly $58 billion in Bitcoin, even as BTC is down about 20% year to date. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up from 8 to 13, still in 'extreme fear' for a seventh straight week below 25. Historically, since 2018, when the index has fallen under 15, Bitcoin's median 90-day return has been 38.4%. Near-term technicals remain decisive: resistance sits near $71,500, repeatedly rejected. A confirmed ceasefire and a sharp oil pullback could open a break higher; renewed conflict would put $65,000 support back in play. Bottom line: 48 hours, one dominant question As the U.S.-Iran conflict entered the final countdown of its sixth week, markets treated it as a single cross-asset trade: • U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,611.83 for a fourth straight gain. Payrolls beat expectations, but ISM services showed rising prices and weakening employment—a stagflation warning. • Oil: WTI spiked to $119 Sunday night and cooled to about $112 as Trump's 'power plant day' deadline collided with ceasefire rumors. • Gold: Held $4,660–$4,680, with central bank demand underpinning the broader trend. • Crypto: Bitcoin rebounded to about $69,700 on short covering. Strategy added $330 million in BTC. Fear remains extreme at 13. The market is focused on one outcome ahead of 8 p.m. Tuesday: a ceasefire deal or a strike order. A 45-day ceasefire could drive oil back toward $80–$90 within days, spark a risk rally, and lift Bitcoin toward $75,000. If Trump follows through on 'Power Plant Day,' oil could push toward $130, the S&P 500 could revisit its yearly low, and crypto could see another wave of panic selling. The answer arrives within 48 hours.

1) Iran launches missiles at Israel; Trump delivers remarks Iran's state television said on April 6 that Iran had launched missiles at Israel. The report came as Donald Trump was speaking at an event at the White House. 2) BlackRock sends 1,178 BTC to Coinbase Prime Arkham data on April 5 showed BlackRock transferred about 1,178 BTC (roughly $82.25 million) to Coinbase Prime about 32 minutes before the data was flagged, via its Bitcoin ETF IBIT. 3) Spot gold clears $4,700/oz Spot gold rose to $4,700 per ounce, up 0.66% on the day. 4) Fed nominee Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing set for next week CNBC reported that the first confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Fed chair, is scheduled for next week. He is viewed as one of the candidates supportive of Bitcoin. 5) Goldman Sachs flags Hormuz Strait risk and potential energy shortages in Asia Goldman Sachs said on April 6 that the Middle East conflict is raising pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, putting oil supply chains under extreme stress and increasing the risk of localized energy shortages across Asia. Several economies rely heavily on Persian Gulf energy imports, with some sourcing about 50% of fuel from the region; dependence is even higher in South Korea and Singapore. In late March, Asia's net oil imports fell noticeably, while naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas inventories tightened and diesel and jet fuel prices climbed. India and Thailand have already implemented measures to address rationing risks or potential supply disruptions. Goldman said prolonged disruption at Hormuz would likely worsen localized shortages and push oil prices higher. 6) Grayscale transfers 8,136 ETH to Coinbase Prime Arkham monitoring data shows Grayscale moved 8,136 ETH to a Coinbase Prime address about two hours before the report on April 6, worth around $17.5 million. 7) USDC Treasury mints 250M USDC on Solana At 22:55 on April 6 (UTC+8), the USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on the Solana blockchain. Top stories from the past 24 hours. For faster updates, download AiCoin (aicoin.com). Disclaimer: The views in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent this platform. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Any disputes between users and the author are unrelated to the platform. If any content or images on this page are alleged to infringe rights, please send proof of ownership and identification to support@aicoin.com for review.

Odaily Planet Daily reported, citing msx.com data, that U.S. equities ended the session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.36%, the S&P 500 added 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54%. Crypto-related names were mixed. MSTR climbed more than 6.56%, BMNR advanced over 5.91%, SBET rose more than 3.07%, CRCL gained over 2.09%, and COIN increased more than 1.94%. MSX.com is a decentralized RWA trading platform that has listed hundreds of RWA tokens, including tokens backed by U.S. stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA, as well as ETFs.

The US M2 money supply has risen to a new all-time high of $22.7 trillion.

According to Huo Xing Finance, Iran early on April 7 countered a U.S.-proposed "15-point ceasefire plan" with its own "10-point proposal," underscoring sharp differences at the opening stage of talks. The report said former President Donald Trump is using negotiations as bait while pairing them with threats, coordinating with Israel to keep up strikes on Iran and pledging to "destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants" and "take over Iran within a day." Markets turned volatile again. Bitcoin failed to hold a Monday afternoon rally and was last at $68,819, down 1.62% over the past 24 hours. Oil prices rebounded to pre-weekend levels, with WTI crude at $113. The report warned that U.S.-Iran tensions are likely to see several more rounds of back-and-forth, with military conflict expected to intensify, keeping investors on edge in the days ahead.

Polymarket's prediction market on whether "US forces enter Iran by April 30" has moved to 100% and is now marked "In Review" pending settlement. Total volume has reached $193 million, including $101 million tied to the April 30 expiry. Yes shares last traded at 99.6 cents. The order book shows more than $15.9 million in asks stacked from 99.6 to 99.9 cents, signaling the market is treating a US ground entry into Iran as a fait accompli. A separate Polymarket contract on whether "another country" will carry out military action against Iran by April is priced at 27%. The "US forces enter Iran" market is the largest geopolitical prediction contract of 2026 and ranks among the highest-volume single contracts in Polymarket's history. Interest has surged after weeks of escalating US-Israel strikes following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28.

Former President Donald Trump said Iran has until 8:00 PM ET tomorrow to meet his demands, warning that failure to comply would trigger severe strikes on key infrastructure. He added that talks are still ongoing despite the ultimatum.

Assets in money market funds surged to an all-time high of $8.2 trillion.

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering imposing tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the latest reports.