Fed Rate Decision Due Tomorrow; Powell's Final Press Conference in Focus

The Federal Reserve will announce its April rate decision tomorrow, with markets treating the outcome as largely settled. Futures and prediction markets are pricing in an almost 100% chance the Fed keeps the target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%. Attention is expected to center on Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, his final public appearance before his term ends on May 15, 2026. Investors will parse his language for any indication of when the Fed could begin easing, whether inflation remains the dominant concern, and how global tensions and oil prices factor into the outlook. The case for staying on hold remains intact. Inflation is still running above the Fed's 2% goal, and the latest CPI data showed annual inflation rising to 3.3% in March, the highest level since 2024, amid geopolitical instability and higher energy costs. While job growth has cooled, unemployment remains low and overall growth is still positive. If the Fed holds, it would mark a third consecutive pause in 2026. Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have faded in recent weeks. Markets that earlier leaned toward two to three cuts now generally point to zero or one, contingent on incoming inflation data. Some major banks, including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, continue to forecast one or two cuts later in 2026. Crypto traders are also watching closely. Bitcoin has tended to react more to expectations than to the rate decision itself, and even a dovish message can trigger a selloff if it's already priced in. Bitcoin was last trading near $76,532 and is testing a key $79,000–$83,000 range; a breakout could open a move toward $90,000. Softer Fed signals or cooler inflation readings could support further gains, while stronger data could drive a short-term pullback. President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell once his term expires.