Bitcoin has traded around $102,000 over the past 24 hours, data show. On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci projects a local bottom could form near $95,000 to $96,000, based on historical UTXO age band patterns. The 1-week to 1-month realized price band crossed below the 1-month to 3-month band on November 1, a signal that has preceded corrections averaging 13.3% in 2025.

Bitcoin's hold above $100,000 faces mounting uncertainty as selling pressure intensifies and investor confidence weakens. Long-term holders have offloaded over 400,000 BTC in recent weeks, while technical indicators signal deteriorating momentum across the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin's Sharpe Signal metric on Binance has declined to approximately -0.277, reflecting deteriorating risk-adjusted returns for market participants, according to data from Arab Chain. The negative reading coincides with Bitcoin trading around $101,747. The metric had maintained values above 0.2 between July and September, a period that aligned with positive price momentum.

Bitcoin trades at approximately $102,001 after a 7.72% weekly decline, testing the 50-week simple moving average at $102,980 for the fourth time. Hash price has declined to $42 per petahash per second, approaching break-even levels following April's halving. Treasury companies including Strategy and Metaplanet carry over $120 million in unrealized losses as bitcoin exchange-traded fund outflows reach $2.3 billion from the peak.

Bitcoin is trading above $100,000 while U.S. housing starts decline and the S&P 500 shows signs of correction. The cryptocurrency's ability to maintain support while traditional markets weaken will determine whether it establishes a higher-low structure or follows equities toward the $90,000–$95,000 zone.

Bitcoin is trading close to its $142,000 fair value according to the power law model, positioning the asset for potential upside. Long-term holders and miners continue accumulating despite recent volatility, while institutional forecasts remain mixed with end-2025 projections ranging from $120,000 to $180,000.

Bitcoin's market share has fallen 5.13% since May to 59.90%, according to TradingView data. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland views the declining dominance as a possible precursor to an altcoin rally, though CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index remains at 28 out of 100, within Bitcoin Season territory.

Bitcoin's current bull run could conclude by late 2025, analyst Benjamin Cowen says, drawing on historical four-year cycles that peaked after U.S. presidential elections in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to approximately 66%, indicating capital consolidation around the leading asset. Cowen sees the 50-week moving average near $100,000 as a key threshold that, if broken, would signal the bull phase is ending.