On December 19, 2025, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's market cycle has shifted toward bearish conditions as demand growth fell below trend since early October 2025. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs moved from accumulation to distribution in Q4 2025, with net holdings down about 24,000 BTC, while derivatives funding rates hit their lowest level since December 2023.

Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer argues that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle likely peaked at $125,000 on Oct. 6 and expects a downside phase into 2026, with key support between $65,000 and $75,000. Other analysts, including Delphi Digital's Tom Shaughnessy, foresee fresh all-time highs in 2026 driven by fundamental growth and expanding regulated investment products, even as social sentiment and smart money positioning turn short-term bearish.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley argues that the current Bitcoin drawdown, including a roughly 25% drop from its $126,000 all-time high, fits a recurring crypto market pattern. He points to Bitcoin's 12% decline in Q1 2025 followed by rebounds in Q2 and Q3, and expects a broader recovery in Q1 2026 as total crypto market capitalization has fallen from about $4.20 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Other analysts such as Tom Lee and Julien Bittel also highlight oversold signals and historical precedents for a rebound, though some place the timeline closer to mid-2026.

Bitcoin does not store encrypted secrets on-chain, so a quantum computer would target signature forgery on revealed public keys rather than "decrypt" the ledger. The near‑term levers are public‑key exposure and wallet behavior, while migration to quantum‑resistant spending paths is a protocol and UX challenge rather than an immediate crisis.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in around 30 years, while indicating real rates would remain deeply negative. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $86,000 after the announcement but rebounded to trade above $87,000–$88,000 as analysts debated how Japan’s tightening, diverging from anticipated Fed cuts in early 2026, could shape near-term crypto volatility and price targets up to $200,000.

Metaplanet, a Japan-based Bitcoin treasury firm, will begin U.S. trading via American Depositary Receipts under the OTC ticker MPJPY. The sponsored ADR program uses Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas as depositary and MUFG Bank as custodian, and is designed to improve investor access without raising new capital.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the Miner Financial Health Index is at 22%, while the Demand–Supply Balance reads 38% on a 30‑day average. Nominal miner revenue has fallen to about ~40M, marking local lows and signaling profitability strain even with BTC trading well above summer 2022 levels. A sustained dip below the 20% threshold has historically preceded miner capitulation.

Bitcoin rose about 2.5% versus the daily open and aimed for $88,000 on Friday after the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to around 0.75%, a three-decade high. Arthur Hayes argued negative real rates could push USD/JPY toward 200, while Temple 8 Research said further hikes may be off the table to protect the yen and manage stimulus costs.