Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan anticipates Bitcoin will set new all-time highs in 2026, even as the current market appears bearish. He argues that the traditional four-year cycle is weakening, while institutional adoption, lower volatility, and reduced correlation with equities are reshaping BTC's market profile.

Analysts say Bitcoin has likely shifted into a bear phase as demand expansion stalled after October 2025. Institutional exposure softened, with ETF holdings dropping by roughly 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, while perpetual funding rates fell to late 2023 levels and price slipped below the 365-day moving average, keeping near-term pressure on BTC.

A weekly analysis outlines a bear cycle for Bitcoin with a historically small 55% drawdown from the all‑time high, implying a potential bottom near $56,000. The view reflects softer demand, fading derivatives risk appetite, and U.S. spot ETFs turning net sellers in Q4 2025, with intermediate support anticipated around $70,000.

On December 20, quant trader CryptoOnchain outlined a bearish Bitcoin setup on X, citing price stalling near the Point of Control and RSI divergence. The analyst said a drop toward $70,000–$73,000 is likely, with potential reversal signals around $72,000. Bitcoin trades near $88,330, and holding that zone could be crucial to avoid deeper correction.

Bitcoin is trading in a tight range around the $88,000 level while derivatives positioning builds a concentrated pocket of short liquidations overhead. Recent liquidation data indicates many leveraged traders are betting against further gains, creating conditions where a modest price increase could trigger a sharp, cascading move higher.

Coin Bureau highlighted Bitcoin's realized price near $56,000 as a bear-case threshold. Benjamin Cowen noted cycle durations of 1,067, 1,059, and 1,062 days, while a Binance liquidation heatmap showed heavy liquidity in the low $100,000s and near $110,000, plus a lower cluster in the low to mid $70,000s. A TradingView weekly BTCUSDT chart indicated $88,122 on OKX on Dec. 21, 2025, implying roughly a 55% drop toward $56,240.

Bitcoin is trading around $88,750 after a recent pullback, hovering just below a key resistance area and maintaining a consolidating structure. Technical levels between roughly $84,500 and $94,200 are in focus as traders assess whether the current pause precedes a continuation higher or a deeper correction. Macro factors such as disinflation, shifting US rate expectations, and ongoing spot ETF inflows are helping to underpin sentiment while volatility contracts.

On 19 December 2025, Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese Bitcoin treasury-focused company, began trading its new sponsored ADRs on the US OTC market under the ticker MPJPY. The Level I program, with Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas as depositary and a 1:1 ADS-to-share structure, replaces prior unsponsored trading under MTPLF without changing total shares. The company says this setup aims to cut transaction costs, standardise US dollar settlement and broaden access for US investors seeking Bitcoin treasury exposure.