Bitcoin bear thesis targets $49,000 in 2026 as fees, ETF flows and miner shifts raise stress

On Jan. 30, 2026, analyst Liam 'Akiba' Wright updated his medium-term Bitcoin bear thesis calling for a potential move toward $49,000, noting that key network and flow metrics look more stressed than when he first outlined it in November. While Bitcoin trades in the low $80,000s, he points to extremely weak fee contribution to miner revenue, negative year-to-date ETF flows exceeding $1 billion, and miners pivoting into AI and HPC hosting as signs of underlying fragility. Wright argues that these structural pressures are building tension beneath the price and could act as a liquidity magnet if Bitcoin eventually drops into the high-$40,000 zone.