CME FedWatch Shows 48.3% Odds of 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut by June

CME's FedWatch Tool on January 30 showed a 15.3% probability the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points by March, with an 84.7% chance rates remain unchanged. By April, markets priced in a 29.7% likelihood of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut, a 67.2% probability of no change, and a 3.2% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction. By June, the implied probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut rose to 48.3%, with a 33.7% chance of unchanged rates and a 16.4% likelihood of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut, CME data show.