Bitcoin aSOPR downtrend signals short-term entry zone but capitulation risk if support fails, CryptoQuant analyst says

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV said on Jan. 30 that Bitcoin's aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) has recorded progressively lower highs and lower lows since early 2024 even as the price climbed from about $40,000 to above $100,000, indicating weakening conviction as holders take profits earlier in each rally. The metric has been moving within a descending channel where touches to the upper boundary align with local price tops and contacts with the lower boundary align with local bottoms, and Bitcoin is now testing the lower band under extreme fear with around one-third of total supply at an unrealized loss. Historically, aSOPR below 1.0 combined with a large share of coins in loss has often coincided with tactical short-term buying opportunities ahead of rebounds, but MorenoDV warned that if the current support level breaks and other technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, the market would shift into a capitulation phase.