Gold Price Forecast: US NFP Surprise Sparks Volatility; Will XAU/USD Break $5,115 Amid Strong US Data?

As of February 12, 2026, gold (XAU) remains volatile, trading between $5,000 and $5,100 after a stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report reshaped Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. January job growth surged to 130,000 versus a 70,000 forecast, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and wages rose 0.4% month-over-month, prompting markets to raise the probability of a March rate hold to 95%. Gold initially fell to $5,020 as the US dollar and Treasury yields jumped but rebounded toward $5,060 on dip-buying. Despite short-term pressure, long-term fundamentals remain supportive, including strong central bank demand—863 tonnes purchased in 2025—ongoing de-dollarization led by China, geopolitical tensions, and institutional hedging against sovereign debt risks. Technically, gold is consolidating within an ascending triangle below $5,115 resistance, supported by rising 50- and 200-EMAs, with RSI near neutral. A breakout above $5,115 could target $5,250 or higher, while a drop below $4,986 risks deeper losses toward $4,820, as traders await upcoming US inflation data.