Technical Analysis

Over the past week, Aptos has repeatedly tested the psychological $1 resistance, climbing to a local peak of $1.11 on 25 February before pulling back by 22% in three days. Technical indicators on the daily and 4-hour charts, including a rising triangle and improved A/D and MFI readings, align with a 1‑month heatmap that shows clustered short liquidations between $1 and $1.12, suggesting a possible bullish breakout while traders remain cautious around this key level.

Bitcoin climbed to a one-month peak of $74,000 on Thursday, supported by renewed US buying interest reflected in a sharply higher Coinbase Bitcoin Premium. The move, which coincided with ETF inflows, quickly reversed as the price slipped back below $71,000 by Friday and CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index stayed at 10/100, signaling a continued bear market. Analysts also cited macro uncertainty and upcoming economic data as reasons any optimism remains constrained.

Bitcoin briefly traded above $73,000 over the past day, while multiple on-chain indicators from Swissblock and CryptoQuant suggest it may be transitioning out of peak negative momentum. Demand contraction has eased, US spot ETF inflows have turned positive, and selling pressure from both traders and long-term holders has declined, yet resistance zones around $79,000 and $90,000 still define whether this move becomes a lasting regime shift.

Bitcoin recently pushed above $70,000, prompting debate over whether the move signals a new major uptrend or just another step in a long-term bottoming phase. Analyst CrypFlow, in a technical study using multi‑year trendlines and the Stochastic RSI, argues that Bitcoin is forming a major cycle low along a trendline dating back to 2018 and retesting the former $69,000 resistance as support. Based on how long the Stochastic RSI historically stays below zero, the analyst suggests a double‑bottom structure into October 2026 could precede the next full‑scale bull run.

On March 6, 2026, Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure from short-term holders who transferred 27,000 BTC, worth about $1.86 billion, to exchanges in profit. This wave of profit-taking was the largest since January 14, 2026, a period that preceded a 36% decline in BTC's price. Analysts point to worsening macro conditions, ETF outflows, falling open interest, and a new death cross between the 50 and 200 SMA as signals that Bitcoin may be entering the final downward phase of its current cycle unless it can reclaim the $94,000 level.

On Friday, the crypto market's total capitalization excluding stablecoins hovered around $2.04 trillion while U.S. labor data showed a 92,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls in February with unemployment at 4.4%. The weaker jobs report fueled expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve later in 2026, as technical indicators signaled easing selling pressure after February's sharp market correction.

In his 2026 outlook, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone projects Bitcoin could retreat to the $50,000 area and silver to $50 per troy ounce. He bases this view on mean reversion, geopolitical tensions, a potentially fragile U.S. stock market and a weakening BTC-to-silver ratio around 880, arguing that these factors may signal ongoing vulnerability in both assets.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 785 points, or 1.61%, to 47,399 amid a Brent crude surge to $90 and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy supply fears from the US-Iran conflict drove heavy losses in major financial, industrial, and healthcare names, while select energy stocks gained. Analysts' models now link further oil price spikes to additional Dow declines, with upcoming payroll data and potential Hormuz developments set to determine whether the index rebounds or slides toward lower levels.

Bitcoin has been trading above $70,000 over the last 24 to 48 hours, while a Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap points to a dense cluster of short positions around $71,800. This zone, heavily loaded with 50x to 100x leverage, could fuel a sharp squeeze toward $75,000 before liquidation-driven momentum weakens between $72,000 and $76,000. If fresh buyers fail to step in after this liquidity is cleared, the price may quickly lose steam and potentially slide back below $60,000.

Bitcoin's price slipped back below $70,000 after a brief rally fueled by more than $1.1 billion of spot ETF inflows over three sessions. ETF data from early March show a sharp shift from strong inflows to net redemptions, while analysts highlight stronger spot demand but warn that macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and renewed outflows leave the recovery fragile.