Bitcoin miner flows are showing a textbook stress cycle, with operating costs dictating supply to the market rather than optional profit-taking. Across 2022 and 2023, miners typically sold 15,000–20,000 BTC per quarter, providing steady liquidity. Selling pressure eased in 2024: quarterly outflows fell below 10,000 BTC and briefly flipped negative in Q4, pointing to a short-lived balance-sheet repair. That respite did not last. In Q1 2026, miners sold more than 32,000 BTC, a move consistent with forced liquidation. The shift coincides with hashprice sliding to about $33/PH/s/day, below an estimated $35 breakeven, leaving nearly 20% of miners operating at a loss. As miner reserves trend down toward 1.8 million BTC, additional supply moves into circulation, and market absorption becomes the key variable for whether prices stabilize or volatility persists. Selling power fades as miners move from pressure to exhaustion As the bulk of forced selling clears, behavior is increasingly consistent with miner exhaustion. Earlier in the cycle, spikes in selling power aligned with peaks, reflecting profit-taking and margin-driven distribution. After the halving, that pattern weakens as block rewards decline and less efficient operators are pushed out, helping explain the sharp drop in selling power toward 5.9. At the same time, the Miner's Position Index (MPI) remained negative for weeks, often around 0.8–1.0, indicating reduced transfers to exchanges. More recently, MPI has been gravitating back toward 0, suggesting selling is no longer accelerating and is instead stabilizing. In practical terms, the most urgent supply appears to have already hit the market, lowering downside pressure and shifting price control more squarely toward demand. Demand takes the lead as ETFs are tasked with absorbing supply With miner-driven pressure easing, the market enters a more demand-led phase, where ETFs are expected to absorb remaining supply. ETF inflows have repeatedly spiked above $300 million, signaling strong episodic absorption rather than steady accumulation. This matters because MPI has stayed deeply negative—bottoming near 1.04 before stabilizing—reinforcing that miner outflows have already slowed materially. With structural selling pressure fading, forced resistance on price diminishes. Still, participation via ETFs remains uneven, and spot volumes continue to trail derivatives activity. Bitcoin holding near $77,000 increasingly depends on whether institutional inflows become consistent; choppy demand could prolong consolidation even as supply conditions improve. Final summary After the 32,000 BTC miner selloff, the market has largely absorbed miner supply, leaving demand as the primary driver around $77,000. Sustained inflows are now critical, as uneven demand may keep Bitcoin range-bound despite easing sell pressure.