1h atrás
Bitcoin perpetuals funding flips negative despite rally; analyst points to institutional hedging
Bitcoin (BTC) at $78,127.13 is up about 14% this month, marking its strongest monthly gain in a year. Many market watchers see a move above $80,000—a level last reached in January—as increasingly plausible.
The signal from the perpetual futures market is moving the other way. Funding rates, which are typically positive when traders are positioned for higher prices and negative when positioning skews lower, have slipped below zero. The divergence has prompted debate over whether traders are fading the rally.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen, who called for a run toward $125,000 back in early 2023, argues the negative funding print reflects institutional hedging rather than deteriorating sentiment. In his view, the market is undergoing a structural shift as sophisticated players take a larger role.
Perpetual futures track bitcoin’s price without an expiry date. Exchanges use the funding rate—a periodic payment between long and short positions—to keep perpetual prices aligned with spot. When perpetuals trade above spot, longs pay shorts and funding is positive. When they trade below spot, shorts pay longs and funding turns negative.
Funding has stayed persistently negative in recent weeks, with perpetuals trading at a discount to spot. According to 10x Research, bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate is minus 5%, versus a historical norm of plus 8%. That 13-percentage-point gap has widened even as bitcoin rises.
"The Bitcoin funding rate is sending an unusual signal," Thielen wrote in a Saturday note to clients. "At minus 5% on a 30-day average against a historical norm of plus 8%, and turning more negative even as Bitcoin rallies 15% and the options skew recovers, something structural is happening in the futures market, not a sentiment shift."
Thielen cited three drivers of short pressure.
First, crypto hedge fund redemptions. He said crypto hedge funds have lagged bitcoin by 140% over five years, prompting investor outflows. During redemption notice periods, funds may short bitcoin futures to neutralize market exposure while waiting for cash to settle back to bank or trading accounts—a mechanical risk-management step rather than a bearish call.
Second, two institutional strategies that pair short bitcoin futures with trades linked to Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded bitcoin treasury company. One trade seeks to benefit if MSTR shares outperform bitcoin while using short futures as a hedge. Another targets the 11% yield on Strategy’s preferred shares (STRC) and shorts bitcoin futures to strip out crypto price volatility. Strategy raised $3.5 billion in April, scaling both trades at the same time.
Third, miners increasingly repositioning toward artificial intelligence. Miners such as Hut 8, up 48% since April 6, are cutting bitcoin production and expanding AI computing exposure. Thielen said funds buying these equities may short bitcoin futures to reduce crypto correlation—again framing the activity as hedging, not an outright bearish bet on bitcoin.