Technical Analysis

On February 5 and 6, Bitcoin slipped below $61,000 before rebounding to $66,000–$68,000, while realized losses peaked near $1.24 billion per day and later eased to about $480 million. In early January 2026, USDT supply was about $187 billion and fell under $184 billion by mid‑February, with a 60‑day market‑cap change below ~$3 billion. Some analysts view these extremes and a Fear & Greed low near 5 as potential signs of market exhaustion.

On February 23, analyst Zach Rector said on YouTube that XRP may be nearing a capitulation phase, citing rising fear, realized-loss spikes, and stronger XRP Ledger activity. He noted daily successful transactions have climbed about 40% toward 2.5 million, while XRP trades near $1.38 and remains under pressure in recent performance metrics.

Solana's SOL has dropped nearly 40% over the past month, briefly hitting about $77 before rebounding above $80. Analysts including Ali Martinez and Sjuul warn that resistance near $110 and a January 2022 sell signal raise downside risks, with key support at $76 and potential paths toward $53, $35, $23 or even around $4.

On Feb. 21, on-chain metrics flagged a sharp surge in XRP deposits to Binance led by large holders. According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, more than 31 million XRP flowed in, dominated by the 100k–1M and >1M cohorts, increasing near-term sell-side risk while Bitcoin remains rangebound. XRP briefly fell to $1.33 before trading around $1.3947.

According to crypto analyst Kevin, in recent years Bitcoin has aligned more with software stocks than with any other market. Market watcher Super฿ro sees a bullish setup but warns of a possible bear pennant that could target below $50,000, while holding recent lows could open a recovery toward the $70,000 range. CW adds that an IFP golden cross over the 90-day moving average may signal upside.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury firms have recorded three straight weeks of net selling, while BTC trades near $66,191 and US spot Bitcoin ETFs see persistent outflows. Analysts warn that continued selling and weak fund inflows could drag Bitcoin toward prior bear market levels, though some view the drawdown as a healthy reset of leveraged positions.

On February 21, Santiment reported XRP registered its steepest on-chain realized-loss spike since November 2022, with the last comparable episode 39 months ago when losses were around $1.93 billion. That capitulation was followed by a 114% eight-month rally; if history rhymes, a comparable rebound could target $2.70–$2.80, though XRP recently traded near $1.39 amid near-term weakness.

Shiba Inu fell under $0.000006 after months of weakness and is attempting to stabilize just beneath that level. The token faces initial support near $0.0000055, with deeper interest seen around $0.0000050, while resistance stands at $0.000006 and $0.0000065. Momentum remains muted, keeping focus on whether bulls can reclaim lost ground in the near term.

Bitcoin slipped after a rejection near $70K, with sellers driving price below recent daily lows. The analysis points to consolidation between the $60K support and $75K resistance, while a breakdown from a 4‑hour triangle shifts focus to $62K–$65K and the $69K–$70K liquidity cluster.

In the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report, technical analyst Tom McClellan highlights that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin futures have swung decisively toward net long exposure, a shift he describes as happening "with some urgency." He argues that, given the limited presence of traditional commercial hedgers in Bitcoin, these large speculators effectively act as the smart-money group, and that prior extreme readings in this cohort have aligned with significant market outcomes. McClellan stresses, however, that these COT extremes represent a market condition rather than a precise trading signal, even as Bitcoin changes hands around $65,663.