Polymarket Sees 77–78% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown Before January 31, 2026

According to Polymarket data, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown occurring before January 31, 2026 has climbed to around 77–78%, signaling elevated political tension over federal budget talks. A potential shutdown could disrupt public services, delay legislative work, and slow progress on crypto-related measures such as the CLARITY Act, while adding pressure to broader financial markets.