Polymarket Puts U.S. Shutdown Odds at 78% by Jan. 31; CLARITY Act Path Uncertain

Polymarket traders now assign a 78% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before January 31, according to Polymarket, following renewed budget tensions on Capitol Hill. On January 25, 2026, commentator Collin Rugg noted the odds briefly jumped to 85% after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer rejected moving an appropriations bill with DHS funding. The rising risk further clouds the delayed CLARITY Act’s legislative timeline.